127 2022 Anuário Brasileiro do Setor de Locação de Veículos Brazilian Vehicle Rental Sector Yearbook Moderate growth in 2022 We ended 2021 with growth of more than 10.5% in vehicles sold in all segments, a positive result but below the initial estimate by Fenabrave, of 16%. The reasons for this more measured growth are well known, such as the global crisis in the supply of components like semiconductor, logistics problems, and the reduction in tourism and road transport in general. For 2022, which will be an even more challenging year because of the Presidential elections, a forecast of zero percentage growth in GDP, and rising interest rates. With the supply of components resuming in the second half of the year, we project overall growth of 5.2% for all automotive segments, and 4.4% for cars and light commercial vehicles, which are the focus for ABLA and rental and leasing companies. Fenabrave makes estimates about demand and not supply, which is the responsibility of the automotive industry. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the demand for cars and light vehicles has increased and a return to normal working life, for purchases and for rental or leasing. On the demand side, we believe that although credit will be harder to get, the cat and light vehicle segment will maintain its recovery until it returns to pre-crisis levels. The peak year was 2012, when more than 3.6 million cars were sold, so we have seen a 45.7% fall. Recovery will be gradual from 2025 to 2027, if there are no more unexpected events. I believe that there will be a lot of transformations in the coming years in mobility business models and dealers will offer all the products and services required in the desired formats and channels. mercado e não sobre a oferta, o que compete à indústria automotiva avaliar. Desde o início da pandemia, a demanda por autos e leves aumentou, em função dos serviços de transporte e delivery e, também, pela intenção das pessoas voltarem a se locomover por meio individual, o que fez crescer a procura por esses veículos, em todas as modalidades, tanto para a compra como para a locação, que é o caso dos associados ABLA. Considerando a demanda, acreditamos que, embora sofrendo com um crédito mais restritivo, o segmento de autos e leves manterá seu curso de recuperação, até que retorne aos patamares de antes da crise. O pico deste segmento aconteceu em 2012, quando foram comercializados mais de 3,6 milhões de carros; ou seja, tivemos uma retração de 45,7%, de lá para cá e só devemos nos recuperar, de forma gradual, entre os anos de 2025 e 2027, se não tivermos mais nenhum fato inesperado, como a pandemia. Acredito que muitas transformações deverão ocorrer, nos próximos anos, nos modelos de negócio ligados à mobilidade, e as concessionárias estarão preparadas para oferecer todos os produtos e serviços demandados, no formato e canal desejados. José Maurício Andreta Júnior Presidente da FENABRAVE / President of FENABRAVE © Divulgação A lot of transformations are expected in mobility-related business models in the coming years
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