Anuário Brasileiro do Setor de Locação de Veículos | 2021

135 2021 Anuário Brasileiro do Setor de Locação de Veículos Brazilian Vehicle Rental Sector Yearbook A challenging year I t is difficult to evaluate last year only from the point of view of the vehicle distribution sector. Brazil, like the whole world, suffered what economists called a sudden halt because of the pandemic that shook previously thriving economies which found themselves staggering from one hour to the next. InBrazil wehad threedistinct but equally challenging periods: the first two months, in which the pandemic was still an unknown; the second two months, with the strictest lockdowns, and the last eight months of the year, when sales began to gradually improve. I say this because our sector ended the year with new vehicle sales down by 21.63%, but we have to remember that we had expected worse, at 35.8%, when we ended the first half. If we look at that 21.63% fall from the perspective of early 2020, when the virus was still distant and unknown, the number would seem frightening – and even unreal – since growth of 9.4% had been forecast. If we evaluate the whole context, I believe that we ended 2020 with great results. It was a pleasant surprise, given the circumstances of a very challenging year. However, more than about numbers and indices, it is important to talk about the lessons we have learned and the likely challenges that we will face in 2021. One of the first points to highlight is the valorization of individual transport in the pandemic. After all, one of the great strategies in the fight against the disease is to avoid crowds, common in public transport. Among the other points that helped the resumption of vehicle sales in the second half of last year were low interest rates and the availability of credit. If these conditions remain, Fenabrave estimates overall growth of 16.6% in 2021. It should be noted, however, that these numbers can changed, up or down, by several factors. While mass vaccination and pandemic control could make the forecast look modest, more lockdowns and unexpected tax increases, as occurred recently in the state of São Paulo, may limit growth – or even, in an extreme case, cause a further retraction. But unlike last year, the challenges of 2021 seemmuch more political than sanitary. We hope that governments, in all their spheres, will allow us to push for the recovery of our sector, increasing productivity, generating jobs – in addition to the more than 300,000 already in place – and accounting for 5% of national GDP. That is not insignificant, certainly, but it could be better! Let’s hope the 7,000-plus vehicle dealers can continue to get Brazil moving. Caso essas condições se mantenham, a Fenabrave estima um crescimento global de 16,6%, em 2021. É preciso destacar, porém, que estes números podem ser alterados, para cima ou para baixo, por diversos fatores. En- quanto a vacinação em massa e o controle da pandemia podem fazer com que essa previ- são seja considerada modesta, novas quaren- tenas e elevações inesperadas de impostos, como ocorreu recentemente no estado de São Paulo, podem limitar o crescimento – ou até, em caso extremo, causar nova retração. Mas, diferente do que ocorreu no ano passa- do, os desafios de 2021 parecem muito mais de ordem política do que sanitária. Esperamos que os governos, em todas as suas esferas, permitam que possamos buscar a recuperação do nosso setor, ampliando nossa produtividade, gerando empregos – além dos mais de 300 mil já gerados – e respondendo por 5% do PIB nacional. Isso não é pouco, certamente, mas pode ser melhor! Que os mais de sete mil concessioná- rios de veículos possam continuar fazendo o Brasil se mover sobre rodas. Alarico Assumpção Júnior Presidente da FENABRAVE / President of FENABRAVE © Divulgação