Anuário Brasileiro do Setor de Locação de Veículos | 2021

131 2021 Anuário Brasileiro do Setor de Locação de Veículos Brazilian Vehicle Rental Sector Yearbook Recovery in sight, but there are a lot of challenges ahead A fter a turbulent year for the automotive industry because of the largest pandemic in the last 100 years, we began 2021 with the mission to get through the challenges and work hard to get the entire production chain back on its feet amid so many issues. In 2020, the numbers were sharply down but not as drastic as projected at the beginning of the pandemic. The large injection of emergency resources into the economy and the strength of agribusiness helped ease second-quarter losses, when most factories and stores remained closed. Domestic sales closed at 2,058,437 units, down 26.2%, falling to the level seen in 2016, the peak of Brazil’s last economic crisis. Production of 2,014,055 vehicles was down by 31.6%, meaning the auto industry was underproducing by nearly three million units. In the global ranking, we will be overtaken by Spain (provisional data), falling to ninth place. Exports of 324,330 units were the worst since 2002, going back to figures seen almost two decades ago. Revenue of $7.4 billion was less than half of export revenue in 2017 ($15.9 billion). The truck segment, driven by agribusiness and the growth of e-commerce, recorded the lowest losses among vehicles, with a 11.5% fall in vehicles licensed compared with 2019. Light commercials were down by 16%, cars down by 28.6%, and buses down by 33.4%. Taking our eyes off the rearview mirror and focusing on the road ahead, our projections for 2021 indicate a 15% increase in vehicles licensed, 9% growth in exports and 25% growth in production, which will not get us back to 2019 levels, pre-pandemic. It has never been harder to project the results for a year because we have been driving through fog since March 2020, when the pandemic began. Unfortunately, there was a second wave of COVID-19 in countries in the Northern Hemisphere, which seems to have also reached Brazil. And we know that vaccination will be a time- consuming process that will take most of the year, holding back faster economic recovery. Add to that cost pressure, the urgent need for reform and unpleasant surprises such as the increase in the ICMS tax in Sao Paulo, and we have before us a picture that still calls for a lot of caution in forecasts. registrou as menores perdas entre os autoveículos, com queda de 11,5% nos licenciamentos em relação a 2019. Comerciais leves caíram 16%, automóveis 28,6% e ônibus 33,4%. Tirando os olhos do retrovisor e focando no para- -brisa, nossas projeções para 2021 indicam aumento de 15% no licenciamento de autoveículos, 9% nas exportações e 25% na produção, índices insuficien- tes para a retomada a patamares de 2019, pré-pan- demia. Nunca foi tão difícil projetar os resultados de um ano, pois temos uma neblina à nossa frente des- de março, quando começou a pandemia. Infelizmen- te, observamos uma segunda onda de Covid-19 em países do Hemisfério Norte, que parece ter chegado também ao Brasil. E sabemos que a imunização pela vacina será um processo demorado, que tomará quase todo o ano, impedindo uma retomada mais rápida da nossa economia. Some-se a isso a pressão de custos, as necessidades urgentes de reformas e surpresas de- sagradáveis como o aumento do ICMS paulista, e te- mos diante de nós um quadro que ainda inspira muita cautela nas previsões. Luiz Carlos Moraes Presidente da ANFAVEA / President of ANFAVEA © João Luiz Oliveira - Technifoto | ANFAVEA