49 If the forecasts by the National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) are correct, this year Brazilians will buy 3.498 million vehicles, exactly the same as in 2014. In terms of production, however, the expectation is different: automakers will have to work hard to expand the volume of cars assembled in 2014, which totaled 3.15 million units, by 4.1%. This addition of 129,000 vehicles manufactured will be needed to meet demand from abroad. “We will recover some of the exports lost last year,” says Luiz Moan, president of the organization. In presenting the forecasts, Moan made a point of saying that the data are the result of extensive technical studies based on a “realistic scenario,” done in a “worst case” scenario. So, he made it clear that any improvement at all will be on the scenario at the beginning of January. Among the positive factors cited to support these expectations, ANFAVEA’s president cites the new legislation facilitating the recovery of assets in the event of default, causing the banking system to finance again. Another point in favor of the domestic industry is the appreciation of the dollar against the real, which raises the price of imported cars and reduces their sales, leaving room Brazilian-made cars to close the gap. Regarding the possible fear of a withdrawal of programs encouraging the sector, such as The Truck Fleet Renewal Program and ExportarAuto (which ANFAVEA says is designed to improve Brazil’s competitiveness in the international arena and allow the export of 1 million of vehicles and 40,000 self-propelled machines a year by 2017), Luiz Moan believes both will continue, although the Fleet Renewal Program has been resized. Initially, the program was to renew 30,000 trucks over 30 years of age. Now, it will begin on a trial basis, with a small, as year undefined, number of vehicles for the authorities to assess its impact on traffic flow and mobility, medical and hospital costs via fewer accidents. The fact is, this program will start in 2015, says Moan, basing his conviction on the fact that the authorities are aware of its importance. As for the Exportar-Auto, Moan says some measures have already been implemented. Speaking of understandings with the new team in the federal government, he says both the minister Joaquim Levy, at Finance, and Armando Monteiro, at Industry and Trade, agree with increasing Brazil’s share on the international market. So the program will continue,” he stresses. On the macroeconomic state of Brazil, Luiz Moan reveals that ANFAVEA is works expecting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of between 0.5% and 0.9%, with inflation of 6.5%, a base rate of 13% and the dollar worth R $ 3.10. Tying and winning Vehicle sales in Brazil will be the same in 2015 as in 2014, says ANFAVEA. But production will grow by 4.1%, fueled by expansion in exports Quanto ao Exportar-Auto, Moan informou que algumas medidas já foram implantadas no ano passado. Ao falar dos entendimentos com a nova equipe do governo federal, destacou que “tanto o ministro Joaquim Levy, da Fazenda, quanto Armando Monteiro, da Indústria e Comércio, estão de acordo com aumentar a inserção do Brasil no mercado internacional. Então o programa deve continuar”, enfatizou. Sobre a macroeconomia do País, Luiz Moan revelou que a Anfavea trabalha com expectativa de crescimento do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) entre 0,5% e 0,9%, com inflação de 6,5% ao ano, taxa Selic de 13% e dólar a R$ 3,10.
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