Anuario Brasileiro do Cobre | Brazilian Copper Yearbook 2020

2020 Anuário Brasileiro do Cobre Brazilian Copper Yearbook 70 among the biggest copper using regions, refined usage fell by 17% in Japan, 12% in the EU, 5% in the United States and by about 13% in Asia (Ex-China). However, due to a 50% (1.13 million tonnes) increase in net refined copper imports, Chinese apparent usage in- creased by 13% offsetting the declines in other regions of the world. Real Chinese industrial usage was negatively impacted by the COVID-19 related production suspensions at semis fabricators early in the year and weaker exter- nal demand and should present much lower growth than apparent usage. Preliminary world refined copper balance in the first nine months of 2020 indicates an apparent deficit of about 387,000 t: In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reser- ve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded]. To facilitate global market analysis, however, an additional line item – Refined World Balance Adjusted for Chinese Bonded Stock Changes – is included in the atta- ched table that adjusts the world refined copper balance based on an average estimate of changes in unreported inventories provided by two consultants with expertise in China’s copper market. Over the first nine months of 2020, the world refined co- pper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in unreported/bonded stocks), indicated a deficit of about 387,000 t. The world refined copper balance ad- justed for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicated a market deficit of about 354,000 t. Copper Prices and Stocks: Based on the average of estimates provided by indepen- dent consultants, China’s bonded stocks are thought to have increased by about 33,000 t over the first nine mon- ths of 2020 compared to the year-end 2019 level. As of the end of November, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 316,492 t, an increase of 14,105 t (5%) from stocks held at the end of December 2019. Stocks were up at the LME (+4%) and COMEX (+116%) and down at SHFE (-25%). The average LME cash price for November 2020 was US$ 7,063.43 /t, up 5.4% from the October average of US$ 6,702.77 /t. The 2020 high and low copper prices through the end of November were US$ 7,674 5 /t (on 30th Nov) and US$ 4,617.50 /t (on 23rd Mar), respectively, and the year average was US$ 6,038.71 /t (0.6% above the 2019 annual average). World Refined Copper Usage and Supply Trends Thousand metric tonnes, copper 2017 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 JAN-SEP JUN JUL AUG SEP World mine production 20,058 20,565 20,528 15,204 15,059 1,69 1,737 1,763 1,701 World mine capacity 23,993 24,062 24,154 18,491 18,697 2,074 2,113 2,121 2,06 Mine capacity utilization (%) 83.6 85.5 85.0 82.2 80.5 81.5 82.2 83.1 82.6 Primary refined production 19,485 20,023 20,018 14,893 15,237 1,721 1,701 1,774 1,749 Secondary refined production 4,063 4,035 4,028 3,034 2,904 338 321 332 317 World refined production (secondary+primary) 23,548 24,058 24,047 17,927 18,142 2,059 2,022 2,106 2,065 World refinery capacity 27,545 27,979 28,794 21,489 22,126 2,438 2,524 2,529 2,453 Refineries capacity utilization (%) 85.5 86.0 83.5 83.4 82.0 84.5 80.1 83.3 84.2 World refined usage (1) 23,705 24,484 24,427 18,254 18,528 2,112 2,168 2,178 2,221 World refined stocks end of period 1,375 1,227 1,22 1,304 1,341 1,314 1,259 1,251 1,341 Period stock change 10 -148 -7 77 121 -96 -55 -8 90 Refined balance (2) -157 -426 -381 -328 -387 -53 -146 -72 -155 Seasonally adjusted refined balance (3) -305 -360 -36 -119 -128 -124 Refined balance adjusted for chinese bonded stock change (4) -154 -486 -559 -461 -354 -58 -133 -52 -120 Due to the nature of statistical reporting, the published data should be considered as preliminary as some figures are currently based on estimates and could change. 1. Based on EU apparent usage. 2. Surplus/deficit is calculated using refined production minus refined usage. 3. Surplus/deficit is calculated using seasonally adjusted refined production minus seasonally adjusted refined usage. 4. For details of this adjustment see the paragraph of the press release on “World refined copper balance”. Source: www.icsg.org