Anuario Brasileiro do Cobre | Brazilian Copper Yearbook 2020

Anuário Brasileiro do Cobre Brazilian Copper Yearbook 2020 69 Copper Market Preliminary data for September 2020 T he International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released pre- liminary data for September 2020 world copper supply and demand in its December 2020 Copper Bulletin. The Bulletin and ICSG online statistical database provide data, on a country basis, for copper mine, smelter, refined and semis production, copper refined usage, trade, stocks and prices. The bulletin is available for sale (annual subscription €550/€850 for orders originating from/outside institutions based in ICSG member countries). Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine pro- duction fall by 1% in the first nine months of 2020, with concentrate production declining by 0.8% and solvent ex- traction-electrowinning (SX-EW) declining by 1.5%: World mine production declined by 3.5% in April-May as these two months were the most affected by the COVID-19 related global lockdown that resulted in temporary mine shutdowns/reduced production levels. However, world mine production started to recover in May as lockdown measu- res eased and the copper industry adapted to the strict he- alth protocols. In Peru, stoppages resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic combined with operational issues/adverse weather that af- fected a few major mines, resulted in a 16.5% decline in mine output over the first nine months of 2020 including a significant decline of 38% in April-May compared to the same period of 2019. However, as the Peruvian mining in- dustry started to recover the extent of the reduction nar- rowed to 2% in July but widened again to about 12.5% in August and September, compared to the same period of 2019. COVID-19 related constraints and other operational issues also resulted in declines in production in other major co- pper mine producing countries, most notably Australia, Me- xico and the United States. In Chile, the world’s biggest copper mine producing coun- try, output was up by 2.5% in 1st half of 2020, recovering from production constraints in early 2019 (output declined by 2.5% in 1st half 2019). However, output in the 3rd quar- ter 2020 declined of 3.7%. Production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Panama increased significantly mainly due to the ramp-up of new mines or expansions. In Indonesia, production grew by 23% as output levels improved following the transition of the country’s major two copper mines to different ore zones in 2019. Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production increased by 1.2% during the first nine months of 2020 with primary production (electrolytic and elec- trowinning) up by 2.5% and secondary production (from scrap) down by 4.5%. Chilean electrolytic refined output increased by 35% as in the comparative period of 2019 production was negatively affected by temporary smelter shutdowns as a result of up- grades to comply with new environmental regulations. Total Chilean refined copper production (including electrolytic and electrowinning) increased by 6%. Chinese refined production growth was negatively impacted by temporary shutdowns related to COVID-19 restrictions, tight scrap supply and constraints associated with concen- trate imports and oversupply in the sulphuric acid market. In Africa, refined production was up 5.5% in the DRC, due to the ramp-up of new or expanded SX-EW plants and by 20% in Zambia, where output has been recovering from smelters’ operational issues and temporary shutdowns in 2019. Indian refined output decreased by 20% primarily as a con- sequence of the temporary suspension of Birla Copper’s operations in March-May following a nationwide lockdown due to COVID-19. Japanese refined production rose by 5% mainly as a con- sequence of a recovery from a number of maintenance shutdowns over the same period of 2019. In the United States, temporary shutdowns and a long strike at Asarco’s operations led to a 14% decline in refined output. Globally, constrained scrap supply due to the COVID-19 lockdown and lower copper prices during the first half of the year have negatively impacted world secondary refined production. Preliminary data indicates that world apparent refined copper usage increased by 1.5% over the first nine mon- ths of 2020: The COVID-19 related global lockdown has had a signifi- cant negative impact on the world economy and subse- quently on key copper end-use sectors in all regions. World ex-China refined copper usage was significantly im- pacted and is estimated to have declined by about 10%: