Anuario Brasileiro do Cobre | Brazilian Copper Yearbook 2018

2018 Anuário Brasileiro do Cobre Brazilian Copper Yearbook 68 the United States. World growth for 2019 remains essentially unchanged to that foreseen previously at 2.6%.  China will remain the biggest contributor to world growth in copper usage. Although underlying “real” demand growth in China is estimated by some analysts to be around 4.5% in 2018, Chinese apparent demand is predicted to grow by only 3.2%. Lower growth is expected in 2019 for both apparent and real usage.  The outlook for the EU and Japan remains positive with higher growth expected this year compared to 2017. Usage in the United States is weaker this year but should recover in 2019. World ex-China usage is expected grow by around 1% in 2018 and a further 2.5% in 2019. World refined copper balance projections indicate a deficit of about 90,000 t and 65,000t for 2018 and 2019 respectively:  ICSG recognizes that global market balances can vary from those projected owing to numerous factors that could alter projections for both production and usage. In this context it can be noted that actual market balance outcomes have on recent occasions deviated from ICSG market balance forecasts due to unforeseen developments.  In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded]. Apparent copper demand for China is based only on reported data (production + net trade +/- SHFE stock changes) and does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer and merchant/ trader], which can be significant during periods of stocking or de-stocking and which can markedly alter global supply-demand balances.  Current ICSG projections are for a small deficit of about 90,000 metric tonnes (t) in 2018, compared to a surplus of about 40,000 t foreseen at our April meeting. The switch to deficit is mainly due to lower than previously anticipated growth in refined copper production. For 2019, we expect the market to present a deficit of about 65,000t compared to a deficit of 330,000 t forecast in April, mainly due to upward revisions in refined production.  World refined copper usage and supply forecast Thousand metric tonnes REGIONS Mine production Refined production Refined usage 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 Africa 1,957 2,155 2,434 1,278 1,437 1,654 208 208 210 North America 2,638 2,568 2,700 1,847 1,799 1,855 2,304 2,249 2,297 Latin America 8,394 8,556 9,004 2,937 2,986 3,126 442 451 476 Asean-10 / Oceania 1,938 2,138 1,875 1,045 1,071 1,243 1,155 1,156 1,212 Asia ex Asean/CIS 2,433 2,387 2,546 12,066 12,495 13,28 15,385 15,795 16,286 Asia-CIS 861 851 851 439 428 447 103 106 106 European Union 963 918 899 2,728 2,727 2,806 3,238 3,339 3,342 Europe - others 858 897 926 1,156 1,226 1,236 925 950 960 TOTAL 20,041 20,471 21,233 23,498 24,169 25,646 23,759 24,253 24,890 World adjusted (1) (2) 20,041 20,429 20,677 23,498 24,161 24,825 23,759 24,253 24,890 % change -1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.7% 2.8% 2.7% 0.7% 2.1% 2.6% World Refined Balance (China apparant usage basis) -261 -92 -65 1. Calculation based on the the difference between the projected availability of copper concentrate and the projected use in refined production. 2. Base: average deviations based on average ICSG forecast deviations for previous 5 years. ESTATÍSTICAS STATISTICS Source: International Copper Study Group (ICSG)